Airventure 2008 at Oshkosh, v2, Hog Wild for Flying!

July 28, 2008

Airventure 2008 at Oshkosh – Day 2. First day of the “show”, and only one word fits: OVERWHELMING. Wandered the field to regain my bearings once again and identify targets of interest for closer exploration later this week.

Aeroshell Square early in the day, before many of the other star attractions arrive. But there is already one plane drawing a crowd. “Terrafugia” – a convertible plane-automobile!  Hasn’t flown yet, but it’s here and getting lots of attention.  This is apparently one of those innovative ideas that has many lives.  I remember as a kid watching grainy 16mm film footage of a similar “Air-Car” with detachable wings.

Of course, this is OSHKOSH, so there is not just one, but several manufacturers of these convertible airplane-automobiles at the show, with front and center placement and coverage. Wonder what the mileage is on these bad boys?

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Hog-Wild for Flying!…Comparing Safety

January 4, 2008

I’ve been comparing flying to riding motorcycles in terms of popularity, attitude, and social environment, to understand why more people are not drawn to private flying. 

Recently, I came upon several articles about motorcycle and aviation safety. The results may suggest how we communicate private flying to the population of potential pilots and aircraft owners. It turns out that the safety trends for motorcycles and GA flying are diverging.

According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), motorcycle fatalities are climbing, particularly for over-40 age riders. In 2006, fatalities increased overall by 5% over 2005, while fatalities for riders aged 40-49 and 50-59 increased 7.5% and 10% (fatalities for riders aged 20-29 also increased 10%).  These older riders have achieved business success, raised families, and now want the excitement and feeling that comes from freedom, speed, the open road, and the social environment provided by riding motorcycles.  But this experience on generally heavier, more powerful bikes comes at a price for the older, slower healing bodies.

  motor_fatal_age.jpg

In contrast, the 2006 general aviation safety statistics in the Nall Report show continued improvements in both total and fatal accident rates.  In 2006, total accident numbers dropped by 8.3%, fatal accidents dropped by 6.5%, and total fatalities decreased by 2%.  Single engine, fixed gear aircraft, 2/3 of the GA fleet, showed substantial safety improvement, with total accidents dropping 11.3% and fatal accidents dropping 22.4%. While it can be argued that any fatality is too many, the trend continues in a positive direction.  The danger signal though, is that flying activity continues to drop.  Accident and fatality rates are dropping, but so are the flying hours. 

Nall Report Trends 2006        ga-stat.jpg

So which is safer; GA flying or motorcycles?  That’s a loaded question. Objective comparisons are difficult since GA flying is measured in flying hours and motorcycle riding is measured in miles traveled. Converting hours to miles involve speed assumptions that are likely targets for criticism. What average speed do you assume for GA aircraft with average cruise speeds that range from sub-100 mph up to over 500 mph?  Even assuming speeds at the lower end of this range shows GA flying to have far lower fatality rates than motorcycles.  But it’s still a difficult comparison because the operating environment and accident facts are so different. That said, GA flying is relatively safer and the safety margin is increasing compared with riding motorcycles.

But can flying provide the visceral satisfaction that is found in riding motorcycles, so participants are able to enjoy this safety premium?  There is certainly an aspect of freedom once you get off the ground (no traffic lanes, still areas of uncontrolled airspace).  There is speed.  There is also a 3rd dimension that can be fully explored via aerobatics.  And there is community, although this is one area that needs work.  So we have some of this also working for us.

The goal here is not to lure away everyone who rides.  Certain traits make people better candidates to be pilots, and we want to attract those folks.  Can we learn from other successful activities, what attracts the participants, and where does GA flying have benefits or have deficiencies that can be overcome so we grow but remain safe?

Safety is one area where we accel (and where we continue to focus efforts).  How can we use this comparative benefit to get new participants….hog wild for flying?


Hog-Wild for Flying…Part 2

November 28, 2007

 Why aren’t we more Hog-Wild for Flying?

What do you think of when you see the word: “Harley“?  Strong images and sounds.  Cemented together with the clothes, accessories, attitude and community.  It’s not just transportation, it’s a package, a culture.  Black leather and chrome.  And it’s compelling, as evidenced by the many people, including boomers who are climbing aboard hogs and getting immersed into the club. And the image is reinforced regularly through films and television. 

Harley riders

Are people buying this image?  You bet.  Even with recent slowdown in sales (attributed by some to the soft economy), motorcycles still sell, and Harley is still a strong brand.  How many are selling?  In 2006, Harley Davidson reported sales of over 349 thousand motorcycles, worth about $4.5 billion! Plus about a billion dollars in parts, accessories, and general merchandise.  And this is one motorcycle company.  Intensity. Can you feel it?

So what about flying?  No, not the airlines.  I mean Our kind of flying. 

That’s the first hurtle.  When you mention “flying”, most people just think of the airlines.  Get screened, walk down a chute through a doorway into a tube with seats. Close the window shades to see the movie, or sleep.  Sorry, this isn’t flying.  It’s just “getting there”.

Real flying.  The flight is the thing; it’s what keeps us coming back.  We put up with 30+ year old planes renting for $100 per hour, worn FBOs, intense regulation, and $5+ a gallon gas, just so we get that 1.2 hour fix as PIC, with the best view around.  Flying keeps me (close to) sane.

Cessna 152

But we still (mostly) fly these old planes, from old airports, served by worn FBOs, and maybe see someone we know that day at the airport.  Aircraft brokers mostly are still selling the 30-year-old planes.  Most FBOs sell the pilot basics: charts, fuel, supplies, headsets, maybe a teeshirt or ballcap.  Community and culture feel are rare. When was the last time you saw GA featured in a movie or television show unless it was reporting an accident, TFR violation, or silly stunt?

Our excitement for flying is stoked almost entirely from within.  For a potential new pilot or owner, there isn’t that excitement, sizzle, image, to latch on to.  In this sensory rich modern age, people expect to be stimulated. 

What grabs you, the black leather and loud pulse of a Harley, or the faded paint and 1970s upholstery in your rental Skyhawk and local FBO?

It may seem artificial and superficial, but I think we need to bring back that excitement to flying.   Barnstormers had the right idea, if a bit crude. 

 How do we bring back the sizzle to flying, while keeping its utility and safety?  Black leather and chrome Pipers?  More in Part 3.  Cheers!


Hog-Wild for Flying!…Part 1

November 25, 2007

Just got finished watching (again) ”Wild Hogs“, the 2007 Touchstone Pictures movie about 4 middle-aged guys who take a cross-country trip on their Harley-Davidson motorcycles. A star-filled cast with Tim Allen, John Travolta, Martin Lawrence, William H. Macy, Marisa Tomei, and Ray Liotta. Very funny movie. Makes me want to learn to ride. There’s even a special feature in the DVD about convincing your spouse to let you buy a Harley.  Hmmm.

 Wild Hogs cover

Ya know, motorcycles in general and Harleys in particular are very popular these days, especially with middle-aged, relatively well-to-do adults.  Meanwhile the pilot population is not growing (except for airline pilot wannabees) and small airplane sales are down. So as a pilot, you gotta ask:

Why aren’t more people hog-wild for flying?

Ok, cost is certainly a factor. Owning, operating, or even renting a plane has never been cheap.  Then there’s the requirement to get that pilot’s license.  But I think there is more to it than this.  More visceral.  More emotional.  Next time, Part 2–Why are we buying and riding Harley and not Cessna (or Piper, Cirrus, Beech, Grumman, etc)?